March 22 2010     2009 H1N1 “Swine Flu” activity has continued to decline in the US since the post below on Nov 20. The peak of activity was in mid-October, when 49 out of 50 states reported widespread activity. During Christmas week there were still seven states with this level of activity, but no state has reported widespread flu activity since the second week of January 2010.

The simple answer to this question is, yes, the “scare” is over now. The outbreak is largely behind us, although there is still residual flu activity in the southern region of the US. The scare is also over in the sense that we now know that this was may go down as the mildest flu pandemic on record. But that doesn’t mean it was a false alarm, as some have claimed. The CDC has estimated that at least 57 million Americans were infected by 2009 H1N1 influenza, and that over 11,000 died. Consider also that those 11,000 people might well be alive today if not for this virus. In that sense, this was still a serious outbreak.

2009 H1N1 is not gone. It is still circulating in the southern US at low but significant levels, and each passing week brings a few more deaths. It is possible  that this virus may largely disappear after the winter of 2010 is over in much the same way that seasonal flu disappears. There is no way to predict if  it will be back in a “third wave” in the next 3-6 months, or as the primary circulating influenza virus in our next winter flu season.

It is important to be aware of developments in the pandemic over the next few months. G-LINE will continue to keep the public in the CSRA informed. For more detailed information, please log onto the CDC H1N1 web site on this link.

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November 20     Recent press accounts and some of the Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) graphs on the G-LINE website may give the impression that the H1N1 pandemic is slowing down or even on its way out. While the CDC ILI curve has been on a downward slope for three consecutive weeks, there is still substantial H1N1 “Swine Flu” circulating in Georgia and the USA. The pandemic is not over.

It is important to understand that in past pandemics, several “waves” of influenza appeared over an extended period. The increase in H1N1 infections that began in late August can be considered the beginning of the second wave of this pandemic. Wave two may indeed be abating, but it is not clear what lies in the future. December is the beginning of the yearly flu season in the Northern Hemisphere. Will we have our usual mix of seasonal flu viruses this winter? Or will we see a third wave of H1N1? Only time will tell.

For more detailed information, please log onto the CDC H1N1 web site on this link.